Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reports of a major shortage that Apple will face in the weeks of this holiday shopping season. He says Apple will ship between 70-75 million iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max units. This is 15-20 million less of the initial estimates for shipments.
The number is significantly more than Bloomberg’s estimated 6 million 14 Pro and Pro Max unit shortage from a recent report.
The total iPhone 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max shipments in 4Q22 will be 15–20 million units less than expected. Significant downside risks to Apple & iPhone supply chain due to Zhengzhou iPhone plant labor protestshttps://t.co/tUkKE9TGVG
— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) November 29, 2022
The shortages have been linked to the recent COVID outbreak in China. It has prompted factories to shut down. And it sparked labor protests at a Foxconn factory where most 14 Pro and Pro Max iPhones are manufactured.
Kuo also notes that Pegatron and Luxshare ICT, two other Chinese iPhone manufacturers, will pick up about 10% of the iPhone 14 and 14 Pro orders. It should help recover some of shortage, but not until late December.
These 14 Pro models are priced quite high. A shortage of millions of iPhones would drop Apple’s iPhone revenue for Q4 2022.
Currently, the 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max are out of stock at Apple Stores in the US. Orders won’t be fulfilled until December 29.
Kuo believes that people will not wait to buy a new iPhone 14 Pro when a recession starts to strengthen.
He says, “most of the demand for the 4Q22 iPhone 14 Pro series amid the economic recession will disappear due to the significant supply and demand gap rather than deferred.”
Read more of Ming-Chi Kuo’s full report here.